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Killersports.com Gridiron Trends Sheet September 6-7
PLAY AGAINST KS Pro Indicator: Week 1 underdogs that had a winning record the previous season
Record: 63-92-9 ATS (-2.6, 40.6%)
SDQL: tpS(margin > 0)>8 and week=1 and D
Active against: LA Chargers Friday and Seattle, Detroit, Houston and one of Buffalo/Baltimore Sunday
This trend shows a clear fade spot for teams that appear strong from last season entering Week 1, but the Vegas odds don’t back that up. Since the start of the Killersports NFL playoff database (2001), underdogs in the opening week of the NFL season who posted a winning record the previous year are just 63-92-9 ATS, covering only 40.6% of the time. Bettors also tend to support “proven” teams early, creating inefficient lines. So when these teams are underdogs in the opener, it is a red flag. They may be in an extremely tough spot against another playoff team for a year ago or things might have fundamentally changed for this team since last season. The average ATS margin of -2.6 further indicates these teams not only fail to cover but do so by a significant margin. Historically, this makes betting against Week 1 underdogs off a winning season a profitable long-term angle.
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PLAY UNDER TREND: Since 2021, FBS matchups in the first 2 games of the season when the total is over 58.
Record: 37-73-1 OU (-4.7, 33.6%)
SDQL: season >= 2021 and game number < 3 and total >= 58.5 and division = FBS and o:division = FBS and team>o:team
Active in 10 games Saturday: Usc/Georgia Southern, Mississippi State/Arizona State, Toledo/Western Kentucky, Arkansas/Arkansas State, Ohio/West Virginia, Western Michigan/North Texas, Navy/UAB, UTSA/Texas State, Syracuse/Uconn, Texas Tech/Kent State, SMU/Baylor
Description: This trend strongly supports the Under in early-season FBS matchups when totals are high. Since 2021, games in the first two weeks of the season with a total over 58 have gone just 37-73-1 to the Over, cashing the Under at a 66.4% rate. The logic is clear: early games often feature rusty offenses, new starting quarterbacks, and fresh coordinators still implementing schemes. Defensive intensity typically outpaces offensive timing in these situations, as offenses need the early season reps to catch up. The higher number in these games from the first 2 weeks likely means that last season’s performance of good offenses and/or bad defense are being overvalued. The average margin of 4.7 points to the Under shows these games aren’t just sneaking under—they are consistently finishing well below projections. This makes the trend a reliable angle to justify early-season Under plays.
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Alabama is 10-0 ATS since November 2018 when they allowed at least 200 rushing yards last game.
SDQL: team=ALA and po:rushing yards>=200 and date>=20181101
Alabama rarely gives up huge rushing efforts to its opponents. When they do, it is a spot they can recover from and this angle has real teeth when Alabama gets gashed on the ground. An example of when this was active include after Auburn ran for 244 yards in the 2023 Iron Bowl, Alabama turned around and upset Georgia 27–24 as a +5.5 underdog in the SEC title game. Last season, this trend was active 3 times and Alabama was a double-digit favorite in all 3 of those games, covering by more than 12 ppg on average. In the Tide’s 10 active games with this trend, all outright wins in addition to against the spread, Alabama has allowed 126 yards per game on the ground. This trend is active this week—Alabama surrendered 230 rushing yards to Florida State in their Week 1 loss. The Tide are currently monster favorites hosting Louisiana-Monroe.
If you love trends, the all new Killersports.com Trends Reports for both the NFL and NCAAFB is the sheet you need each week to review trends for ALL the big matchups. The sheets includes ATS and OU trends with the NFL sheet having trends for EVERY game and the NCAA football Report focusing on top 25 games for the week. This week, the college football report includes more than 120 trends and the NFL report includes more than 75 trends, even without previous game data. Every trend includes SDQL as well. You can find a sampling of the trends in this week’s featured NFL & NCAAFB trends below!
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• The Broncos are 9-0 ATS since December 31, 2023 as a favorite.
SDQL: team=Broncos and F and date>=20231231
• The Lions are 9-0 ATS since November 2022 as a dog when the total is at least 44.
SDQL: team=Lions and D and total>=44 and date>=20221101
• The Bills are 8-0 ATS since September 23, 2024 when their opponent scored at least 24 points last meeting vs this team.
SDQL: team=Bills and Po:points>=24 and date>=20240923
• The Bengals are 8-0 ATS since September 25, 2022 as a road favorite of more than 3 points.
SDQL: team=Bengals and A and line<-3 and date>=20220925
• The Bengals are 7-0 ATS since September 29, 2024 as at least a 4-point favorite.
SDQL: team=Bengals and line<=-4 and date>=20240929
• The Browns are 0-7 ATS since November 28, 2021 when the total is at least 47.
SDQL: team = Browns and total>=47 and date>=20211128
• The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS since 2023 as a road dog when the total is under 49.
SDQL: team=Dolphins and AD and total<49 and season>=2023
• The Patriots are 8-0 to the OVER since September 29, 2024 when their last meeting vs this team went under the total.
SDQL: team=Patriots and P:U and date>=20240929
• The Patriots are 6-0 to the OVER since October 13, 2024 at home.
SDQL: team=Patriots and H and date>=20241013
• The Giants are 10-0 to the UNDER since October 16, 2022 in the first 8 games of the season and when opponent’s regular season win line is greater than or equal to 9.
SDQL: team=Giants and game number<=8 and o:rswl>=9 and date>=20221016
• Arizona State is 9-0 ATS since 2024 when they gained at least 375 total yards last game.
SDQL: team=AZST and p:total yards >=375 and season>=2024
• Oregon is 8-0 ATS since October 2012 in the regular season coming off a game where they led by 35+ points at half
SDQL: team=ORE and p:M2>=35 and game type=RS and date>=20121001
• Clemson is 0-15 ATS since January 13, 2020 when against a non-conference opponent when ranked in the AP Top 18.
SDQL: team=CLEM and conference !=o:conference and rank<=18 and date>=20200113
• Stanford is 0-10 ATS since November 2023 when they scored less than 27 points last game.
SDQL: team=STAN and p:points<27 and date>=20231101
• Oklahoma State is 0-8 ATS since December 2, 2023 as an underdog when the total was at least 53.
SDQL: team=OKST and line >0 and total>=53 and date>=20231201
• Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS since November 18, 2023 against a non-conference opponent.
SDQL: team=TXAM and conference !=o:conference and date>=20231118
• Pitt is 12-0-1 to the OVER since October 2020 as a 12+ point favorite.
SDQL: team = PIT and line <= -12 and date>=20201001
• Indiana is 11-0 to the Over since November 5, 2022 when they failed to cover last game
SDQL: team=IND and p:ats margin <0 and date>=20221105
• Illinois is 10-0 to the Under since 2021 when their opponent scored at least 35 points in their last game.
SDQL: team=ILL and op:points>=35 and season>=2021
• Ole Miss is 10-0 to the Under since October 2021 when they gained at least 600 total yards last game.
SDQL: team=MIS and p:total yards>=600 and date>=20211001