Killersports.com Gridiron Trends Sheet September 27-28

POWERED BY SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS

KS Pro Indicator of the Week:

NFL PLAY ON KS Pro Indicator: Home teams in matchups of two undefeated teams when the home team isn't a 3+ point favorite.

Record: 61-32-3 (4.2, 65.6%)

SDQL: WP=100 and o:WP=100 and H and line>-3

Active with 3-0 Tampa Bay as a home dog vs 3-0 Philadelphia Sunday.

This is a classic line-value spot made visible by a sharp historical trend: when two teams enter a game unbeaten, and the home team is not greater than a 3-point favorite, that home team is 61-32-3 ATS (65.6%), covering by about +4.2 points on average. This Sunday, that setup triggers: Tampa Bay (3-0) is playing host to Philadelphia (3-0), and the line sits at Eagles –3.5.

3 points is (or at least was historically) the typical edge given to a home team. So the lack of a 3+ point line for a home team suggests that oddsmaakers are giving the road team an edge in these battles of unbeatens and that has been a mistake.

Why this angle tends to succeed: it leverages the dampening effect of too much respect being paid to both teams. Oddsmakers and bettors often lean toward the “best team wins” narrative, which can undervalue the home underdog’s situational and environmental advantages, especially when dealing with two potentially top tier teams. In matchups of equals—or near-equals—the home team can carry key edges: crowd noise, sideline communication, comfort in preparation routines, and the psychological pressure that falls on the visitor.

In this instance, Tampa Bay has an excellent run defense that matches well against Philadelphia’s heavy usage of the run. Those factors combine to make Tampa Bay more dangerous than the slight line suggests — exactly the kind of value this trend aims to capture.

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SportsBook Breakers System Spotlight:

NFL PLAY ON SYSTEM: Teams that are 0-3 on the season that entered the year with a win total of more than 8 are 13-0-2 ATS since 2015.

Record: 13-0-2 ATS (6.3, 100.0%)

SDQL: tS(W)=0 and tS(L)=3 and rswl>8 and season>=2015

Active Sunday on the 0-3 Houston Texans hosting the Titans

This week’s NFL betting landscape activates a rare but powerful trend: teams starting 0-3 despite having a preseason win total over 8 have gone13-0-2 ATS since 2015. That full sweep of covering marks and average margin (6.3) implies this is a strong contrarian spot. This Sunday, that setups triggers with the Houston Texans, who opened the year with lofty expectations and now sit 0-3 ATS and SU.

Houston’s losses have been razor-close affairs: a 14-9 defeat to the Rams, 20-19 setback versus the Buccaneers, and a 17-10 loss to Jacksonville. offense has struggled mightily—C.J. Stroud has been under pressure, turnovers have flared, and red zone inefficiency has cost them. Meanwhile, their defense has kept them in games by limiting big plays and making stops.

What this situation boils down to is a spot where a team’s back is completely against the wall at 0-3 on the season. That absolutely makes this week 4 spot a must win and that is certainly the case for Houston on Sunday. But we are specifically looking at teams that came into the season with expectations, that they were expected to be a .500 team of better. That means these teams did not expect to find themselves in this dire early season situation, but likely have the talent to believe there is still hope to the season and the capability to pull themselves out. That certainly describes the Texans, who entered the season with a win total of 9.5 as the favorites in the AFC South.

SportsBook Breakers is one of the premier handicappers in the industry. With more than 15 years having developed and research trends on our Killersports.com database, SBB has the winning records to back it up. SportsBook Breakers has a 555-457 NFL record over the past 6 seasons all with sides and totals. That does not count SBB's 42-23 record with its season win total selections. SBB's college football performance is marked with consistency, and is 129 games over .500 for the past 8 seasons.

You can find SportsBook Breakers selections daily at Killercappers.com

Featured NFL Trends Week 4:

• The Lions are 14-0 ATS since October 25, 2020 when they won last game by at least 4 points and had at least 400 total yards last game.

SDQL: team=Lions and date>=20201025 and p:margin>=4 and p:total yards>=400

• The Vikings are 9-0 ATS since October 29, 2023 when in their previous game ATS margin was at least 5 points.

SDQL: team=Vikings and date>=20231029 and p:ats margin>=5

• The Fortyniners are 0-12 ATS since December 25, 2023 when their opponent won last game.

SDQL: team=Fortyniners and date>=20231225 and op:margin>0

• The Falcons are 0-10 ATS since October 29, 2023 when their last 2 games both went under the total.

SDQL: team=Falcons and date>=20231029 and ou streak<=-2

• The Bears are 0-10 ATS since January 09, 2022 on the road vs a team that lost by at least 4 points last game.

SDQL: team=Bears and date>=20220109 and site=away and op:margin<=-4

• The Browns are 0-10 ATS since October 10, 2021 on the road when their opponent has ATS streak was at least 2.

SDQL: team=Browns and date>=20211010 and site=away and o:ats streak>=2

• The Bills are 0-8 ATS since October 30, 2022 as more than a 10-point favorite.

SDQL: team=Bills and line<-10 and date>=20221030

• The Browns are 11-0 to the OVER since January 08, 2023 on the road when they allowed less than 21 points last game.

SDQL: team=Browns and date>=20230108 and site=away and po:points<21

• The Bills are 9-0 to the OVER since December 17, 2022 as a 7+ point favorite on a 2+ game winning streak.

SDQL: team=Bills and date>=20221217 and line<=-7 and streak>=2

• The Eagles are 14-0 to the UNDER since November 14, 2021 on the road when they allowed at least 304 total yards last game.

SDQL: team=Eagles and date>=20211114 and site=away and po:total yards>=304

If you love trends, the all new Killersports.com Trends Reports for both the NFL and NCAAFB is the resource you need each week to review trends for ALL the big matchups. The sheets includes ATS and OU trends with the NFL sheet having trends for EVERY game and the NCAA football Report focusing on top 25 games and select featured matchups for the week. This week, the college football report includes more than 240 trends and the NFL report includes more than 220 trends. Every trend includes SDQL as well! You can find a sampling of the trends in this week’s featured NFL & NCAAFB trends!

Purchase weekly or season-long subscriptions to the Killersports.com Trends Reports here

AI Trends Vault Featured Trend:

NCAAFB PLAY ON TREND: Kansas State in home games

Record 138-85-2 ATS (4.7, 61.9%)

SDQL: team=KAST and H

Active Saturday as Kansas State hosts Central Florida

Kansas State’s dominance at home isn’t just narrative — it’s entrenched in the numbers. Their home games trend reads 138-85-2 ATS with an average cover margin near +4.7. That gives the Wildcats a built-in edge when Bill Snyder Family Stadium is the venue, and it’s active this Saturday as Kansas State hosts Central Florida. At home, K-State is especially dangerous because the crowd energy, familiarity with sight lines and field nuances, and comfort in preparation amplify small advantages. Kansas State leads the nation in outperforming the spread at home — and it is not even close. In our database history, no other Power school is even at 57% cover rate across their history of home games. For Kansas State to be at 61.9% is a complete outlier that suggests there is some real edge to their home games that is unaccounted for. Going back just the last decade, K-State is 36-25-0 ATS (4.2, 59.0%) at home.

In this matchup, UCF comes in undefeated but with some defensive inconsistencies, especially vs. deep routes and third-down conversions. K-State’s familiarity with crowd noise, sideline communication, and their typically disciplined tempo should help them manage mistakes and control possessions better than an away team might. Because sportsbooks often shade lines toward neutral or road-biased evaluation, this home premium is sometimes underpriced. When you combine K-State’s home dominance with UCF’s vulnerability and the trend’s historical heft, the setup leans toward Kansas State covering — even if they’re not the most explosive team on paper.

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Featured NCAAFB Trends Week 5:

• Oregon is 11-0 ATS since November 02, 2019 when they failed to cover last game when their opponent is on a winning streak of at least 2 games.

SDQL: team=ORE and o:streak >= 2 and p:ats margin < 0 and date>=20191102

• Notre Dame is 10-0 ATS since October 05, 2019 when they allowed at least 290 passing yards last game.

SDQL: team = NOTD and po:passing yards>=290 and season>=2019

• Notre Dame is 9-0 ATS since September 30, 2023 when their opponent attempted at least 35 passes last game.

SDQL: team=NOTD and po:passes >= 35 and date>=20230930

• Penn State is 0-11 ATS since October 21, 2023 on a winning streak of at least 2 games when they won last game by at least 14 points.

SDQL: team=PNST and p:margin >= 14 and streak >= 2 and date>=20231021

• Syracuse is 0-10 ATS since November 27, 2021 as a dog of at least 7 points last game.

SDQL: team=SYR and p:line >= 7 and date>=20211127

• Indiana is 11-0 to the OVER since November 12, 2022 on the road in the regular season.

SDQL: team=IND and game type = RS and site = away and date>=20221112

• Utah State is 10-0 to the OVER since December 20, 2019 when they covered a game that went under last game.

SDQL: team=UTST and p:ats margin > 0 and p:ou margin < 0 and date>=20191220

• Virginia Tech is 9-0 to the OVER since September 16, 2023 when their last game went under.

SDQL: team=VTCH and p:ou margin < 0 and date>=20230916

• Illinois is 13-0 to the UNDER since September 11, 2021 when they allowed at least 388 total yards last game.

SDQL: team=ILL and po:total yards >= 400 and date>=20210911

• Mississippi State is 11-0 to the UNDER since November 25, 2021 when they covered as a 7+ point favorite last game.

SDQL: team=MSST and p:ats margin > 0 and p:line <= -7 and date>=20211125

If you love trends, the all new Killersports.com Trends Reports for both the NFL and NCAAFB is the resource you need each week to review trends for ALL the big matchups. The sheets includes ATS and OU trends with the NFL sheet having trends for EVERY game and the NCAA football Report focusing on top 25 games and select featured matchups for the week. This week, the college football report includes more than 240 trends and the NFL report includes more than 220 trends. Every trend includes SDQL as well! You can find a sampling of the trends in this week’s featured NFL & NCAAFB trends!

Purchase weekly or season-long subscriptions to the Killersports.com Trends Reports here