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NHL01: UNDER: 208-155-28 (57.3%) 8 (...more)
NFL3 Trend: SU: 25-2 (92.6%) and ATS: 24-3 (88.9%) (...more)
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| MrEast learn less|
|As most of you reading this are aware of, the killersports.com website has opened a trend mart where selected SDQL Masters and Pros, are offering dynamic, well thought out systems that for the most part, null the hypothesis of a fair bet, thus, providing an advantage for the user.
I also think that most have no idea how to set a value to it, and from this point on in this post, I am going to display how I value it, so I'm not a voice for anyone else in their, as they may have their own perspective on this subject.
WHAT IS A SPORTS BETTING SYSTEM WORTH?
This is a very subjective matter, that is defined by the quality of the system itself. I have been at this sports betting game for 25+ years, and have utilized the dynamics, and potency of the SDQL for the past several years. Things that used to take me hours, and days, were now at my disposal in an instant!
First, in the wrong hands this toll can be an absolute monster, and spit out misleading "back fitted" systems that appear to have an edge, but will disappoint. It has cost me to learn that painful lesson the hard way, losing a lot of money because I didn't understand that my approach was not based on sound logical principles, but pushing buttons until something good came out.
Back to the question. A logical system with well known handicapping principles, that performs well year after year, and a z-score ( a measure of confidence of future results being positive) of 3 or higher is needed, but that is not all.
All systems are not created equal. I have identified the correlation of parameters, games in the system, and strength of parameter (meaning the parameter is a solid predictor in a given sport), to do the following (not etched in stone), but on average from countless testing:
Each system gets a bonus factor, or penalty based on the numbers of games in the system. More is better obviously. Each added parameter has a negative effect on the z-score, a deduction if you will.
Each losing season over the course of the system history has a negative deduction.
So in the end a 3.83 z-score system may become a 2.86 z-score system by what I have identified as necessary adjustments. Did you ever wonder why a 70% system wins 54% from your time of discovery, and forward to the current date, or loses and busts all together? What I just wrote above explains part of that problem, and introduces, in part, not whole how I personally have learned to address it.
That in mind, these systems are priceless! Think about this. John Doe (could be you), has no time, and or understanding of the database. he turns to seller X, who has spent countless hours perfecting them. he buys a system that is 265-138 ATS and never has had a losing season. What should he pay?
Let's start by this sequence. The same John Doe buys a pick from what he feels is from a respected professional handicapper. he forks over $5, $10,$15....$50 for the pick. The pick loses. John lost his bet and the cost of the pick.
Now let's say the same John Doe buys an active system for X amount of dollars. The pick has the same result, it loses. The good news for John is, it doesn't end there, it doesn't end with the conclusion of the season, it never ends! Let's say that 400+ game proven system has 40 games a year. John gets a professional pick 39 more times this year, and 40 times for each subsequent season!
So in one season John bought his way to 40 picks for X dollars, from a handicapper that would cost 40 x cost per pick = BIG $$$$$$
John continues to invest in sports systems, until he has a whole bunch saved in his arsenal at killersports.com. When he reaches a comfortable number of trends, to his appetite for plays, he has them forever, and the investment stops, but his access goes on forever!
Personally, I understand the value of what these systems are worth, and starting March 1, your going to see that reflected in the purchase price, and it will still be dirt cheap in terms of what they are worth, so the trial ends soon.
Sports handicappers get 500-2500 a given season in one sport, why not build your own book of professional trends and never have to pay ever again...and do so on a per pick basis for peanuts when you measure what your getting for the cost. Remember, whatever you pay isn't for the result on that day, it is for the result of every time it comes up forever, it is yours to use, and once you have enough, guess what? You never have to pay ever again, and you'll have access to situations that null the hypothesis of a fair bet!
Hope that puts a perspective on the true value of the trend market!
Questions and comments welcome
*****ALSO PLEASE NOTE******
Every Friday (when available) I will run Freebie Friday. I will post a trend for free. They won't be my strongest trends, but they will be decent ones, just so you can get a taste for where I am coming from, my skill level, and they will be detailed why they work.
See you at the trend mart
Best of Luck,
| MLB 235-361-33 O/U lots of plays 14.7 ROI || |
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| (2) Active Systems - (NBA - ATS - SU) || |
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359-276-14 (56.5%)(80-135 games p/season) High Volu (...more)
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